Zëvendëspresidenti amerikan, JD Vance, ka thënë se arsyeja kryesore e humbjes së republikanëve në zgjedhjet e mesmandatit është lufta, duke argumentuar se një pjesë e konsiderueshme e votuesve që mbështetën Donald Trumpin në zgjedhjet e vitit 2024, këtë herë votuan për demokratët.
Në një reagim pas rezultateve të zgjedhjeve, Vance tha se analiza e të dhënave të pjesëmarrjes në votime tregonte se mbështetësit republikanë kishin dalë në zgjedhje, por kjo nuk ishte përkthyer domosdoshmërisht në vota për kandidatët e partisë së tij.
Ai përmendi si shembull Floridën, ku, sipas tij, elektorati ishte nëntë pikë përqindjeje më republikan sesa demokrat, vetëm pak më pak se në zgjedhjet e vitit 2024. Megjithatë, Vance tha se problemi kryesor nuk ishte pjesëmarrja, por kalimi i një pjese të votuesve të Trumpit te demokratët.
Duke iu referuar një sondazhi që, sipas tij, kishte parashikuar saktë rezultatet, Vance tha se votuesit që kishin braktisur republikanët kishin përmendur katër arsye kryesore për vendimin e tyre: përfundimin e luftës, përqendrimin te kostoja e jetesës dhe inflacioni, zbatimin e politikës “Amerika e Para” dhe ndryshimin e marrëdhënieve të SHBA-së me Izraelin.
“Arsyeja pse humbëm është lufta. Vetë presidenti e tha këtë mbrëmë”, shkroi Vance, duke shtuar se çdo diskutim i sinqertë për të ardhmen e republikanëve duhet të nisë nga kjo çështje.
Ai paralajmëroi gjithashtu se në muajt e ardhshëm do të ketë përpjekje për ta zhvendosur debatin drejt çështjeve të tjera, përfshirë amnistinë për emigrantët pa dokumente. Vance tha se është i hapur për ndryshime në mënyrën e zbatimit të politikave të emigracionit, por kundërshtoi amnistinë.
Në fund, zëvendëspresidenti amerikan u bëri thirrje republikanëve që të nxjerrin mësime nga rezultati zgjedhor dhe të vazhdojnë angazhimin politik, duke thënë se mbetet optimist për të ardhmen e vendit.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was “composition”—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? “No,” he told me. “We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.”
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
REKLAMË
If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026
